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Harken back to a post I wrote a few months ago titled Is SaaS Eating AI?, Tomasz Tunguz nails it again in his <a data-mce-href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomasztunguz_in-1908-253-american-automobile-manufacturers-ugcPost-7421658103433211904-O1cp/" href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomasztunguz_in-1908-253-american-automobile-manufacturers-ugcPost-7421658103433211904-O1cp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analysis</a> of the likely impact of AI on jobs - especially tech sector jobs.TL;DR the sky isn't falling (I'm pretty sure...).Here's the crux of the analysis - In 1909 there were 253 auto manufacturers. Then Henry Ford introduced the assembly line, and 20 years later only 44 manufacturers remained. But jobs in the industry over that same period went from 76K to 471K.&nbsp; That's over 6X (??) increase of jobs in the sector.&nbsp;<figure id="figure-94vdvrhu4monjbqok" data-full-width=""><img id="94vdvrhu4monjbqok" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/27LsYCo7dZgASOjUMueXRo99NTnNuPeuTA3LMRskdjR6qusQ5UPNdyWMZI3UeoQe.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 3/2; object-position: undefined undefined;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="3:2" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="true" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/27LsYCo7dZgASOjUMueXRo99NTnNuPeuTA3LMRskdjR6qusQ5UPNdyWMZI3UeoQe.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 3/2; object-position: undefined undefined;"></figure>What happened? Automation fundamentally changed throughput, supply chain and unit economics. The industry not only shifted to feed the new beast, but jobs in it grew by 6X+ over the same time.&nbsp; Jobs didn't go away - they shape shifted &amp; multiplied.Feels familiar. Secondary &amp; tertiary effects of industrialized AI are just barely beginning to emerge. But they will. And they'll likely follow the same pattern that followed the assembly line.&nbsp; As factory automation drastically reduced both the production time and cost of cars, AI will do the same for technology (coding, devops, etc.).&nbsp; But the resources that would have otherwise been operating in pre-AI type roles will redeploy to&nbsp; build and build the ecosystems &amp; supply chains necessary to support the post-AI dynamics of building and operating technology.<figure id="figure-wlxl94ktc9monjgyfr"><img id="wlxl94ktc9monjgyfr" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/26w8OUkbMKlBnvVkhf1nZAK3rwEjN7MgOKYvRQSLTAPyr6Q2jfq9VqNUAvMpDqS3.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 3/2; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="3:2" data-caption="" data-positionx="null" data-positiony="null" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/26w8OUkbMKlBnvVkhf1nZAK3rwEjN7MgOKYvRQSLTAPyr6Q2jfq9VqNUAvMpDqS3.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 3/2; object-position: center center;"></figure>I'm old enough to remember the cries that the cloud was going to destroy the enterprise hardware business. Nvidia would like a word.&nbsp;From Tomasz' original post here - <a data-mce-href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomasztunguz_in-1908-253-american-automobile-manufacturers-ugcPost-7421658103433211904-O1cp/" href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomasztunguz_in-1908-253-american-automobile-manufacturers-ugcPost-7421658103433211904-O1cp/" data-mce-selected="inline-boundary">https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomasztunguz_in-1908-253-american-automobile-manufacturers-ugcPost-7421658103433211904-O1cp/</a>

Is AI Kiling Jobs?

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To my fellow entrepreneurs, CEO's, marketing and Cx leaders, I'm sharing this as a cautionary tale of 'how not to' provide outstanding service. But I'd guess most of you already know &amp; feel this.An adversarial customer service experience is one of the surest-proof ways to destroy your brand along with any possibility of ever winning back a lost customer in the future. Take it to the bank and build accordingly.Here's the set-up. I've been a Cox Communications broadband customer since I moved to AZ. 11.5 years and easily over $20K spent with them over that period. They don't offer fiber in my neighborhood, and have increased rates by almost 65% in the last 5 years for the same speeds/service level for HFC. So did some digging and turns out not only is there a fiber provider in my neighborhood, my house is already prewired for it.3X the speed and it costs 60% less than what I'm paying now. No brainer.Install was today. Seamless, 45 minutes and the tech was smart, polite and my dogs liked him. Bonus.Spend 5 minutes searching cox.com for how to cancel. Finally find it, and click 'chat with us'. Here's how it should have gone, in 5 minutes or less:Cox: It's great to connect with you today Andrew. How can I help you? Me: Thank you. I'd like to cancel my service. I've switched to a different ISP. Cox: I'm terribly sorry to hear that. I see you've been a loyal customer for over 11 years. Anything I can do to change your mind? Me: No, the service has had spotty reliability, I'm looking for higher speeds and you don't offer fiber in my area. Cox: Understood. Let me process your request. ..... Cox: OK, the cancellation is complete [insert confirmation info]. Would be OK for us to reach out to you once we do have fiber in your area to see if we can win you back? Me: Absolutely. Thanks for your help. Cox: My pleasure. Thank you again for being a loyal customer for so long.Brilliant. You can't offer me what I want at the moment, but the positive exit experience leaves the door open for you to win me back when you can.Seems so obvious. But, what followed instead was an excruciating 57 minutes of argumentative offer hounding (clearly with google translate in the middle based on grammar &amp; response times) that p*ssed me off and felt more like I was negotiating with a street hawker in Marrakesh to buy a fake Rolex vs. dealing with a multi-billion dollar communications company.In a world of Cox Communications, be Chick-fil-A

The Perils of Bad Customer Service

Here's a link to another fantastic <a data-mce-href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/great-startup-delusion-what-web3-failures-teach-business-paul-o-brien-lu5ac/" href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/great-startup-delusion-what-web3-failures-teach-business-paul-o-brien-lu5ac/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">post</a> from my friend Paul O'Brien.&nbsp; This time he's discussing something that seems pretty straightforward, but isn't - what is a startup?There's a tendency for anyone building anything with technology to claim they're building a 'startup,' but it's not that simple.&nbsp; Here's the framework from Paul's article that sticks out to me:"Startups are not just new businesses. Startups are new business models.They’re not “another version” of an existing idea with tech sprinkled on top. A startup creates an entirely new kind of economic behavior, often enabled by innovation but not reducible to it. It changes how markets operate, how customers behave, or how industries are structured. It breaks something, reconfigures it, and creates disproportionate value by doing so."I've posted my thoughts on startup ecosystems before, and I believe this lack of clarity lies directly at the heart of a lot of the startup ecosystem failures we talk about.&nbsp; Every startup is a small business, but few small businesses are really &amp; truly a startup.Incidentally, this reminds me of my favorite definition ever given for a 'startup,' which is (to paraphrase the great Steve Blank):"A startup is a temporary organization in search of a repeatable business model."Note the complete absence of the word 'technology'.&nbsp;Thanks as always Paul, incredibly insightful.Go read Paul's post &amp; then let me know, how do you define a startup?

What is a Startup Anyway?

I just read through this MIT report on "The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025" (link in comments). While I'm not entirely surprised at the data, it's still an eye opener and a good reminder that while we're knee (neck?) deep in an AI hype cycle, it's far from delivering on its promises—for most organizations, anyway.&nbsp;<h3>TL;DR - Be patient.</h3>The study, based on interviews with 52 orgs, surveys from 153 leaders, and analysis of 300+ AI initiatives, paints a picture of massive investment ($30-40B in enterprise GenAI) but shockingly low returns: 95% of companies are seeing zero measurable P&amp;L impact. Tools like ChatGPT are everywhere—80% explored, 40% deployed—but they're mostly boosting individual productivity, not transforming businesses.&nbsp;The money quote - "Enterprise grade systems, custom or vendor-sold, are being quietly rejected. Sixty percent of organizations evaluated such tools, but only 20 percent reached pilot stage and just 5 percent reached production. Most fail due to brittle workflows, lack of contextual learning, and misalignment with day-to-day operations." The outcome from $40B invested (so far) - stalled pilots and a "shadow AI economy" where employees sneak in personal tools for real gains but enterprise-wide implementation remains elusive.Not surprisingly, the media industry is moving the fastest toward broad adoption given the incredible pace of improvement in GenAI media tools, but most of the rest of the economy is so far showing minimal disruption. Budgets skew mainly toward sales/marketing automation(50%+), while back-office and ops — where ROI could be huge — remain largely overlooked.&nbsp;Reminds me of the early days of cloud computing. I'm old enough to have lived through &amp; remember the hype when AWS launched in 2006 but concerns over security, data sovereignty, and integration meant a slow evolution from on-prem to the cloud. It took about a decade for cloud to hit critical mass: by 2015-2016, market share started tipping (AWS alone crossed $10B revenue).&nbsp;The lesson? Disruptive tech needs time to mature - refining models, building trust, and proving ROI - before it reshapes markets.GenAI feels similar: we're in that frothy, experimental phase, but the report highlights paths forward for "crossing the divide." So, while the hype is real and the returns aren't (yet), like cloud, GenAI will redefine efficiency and innovation once we get the fundamentals right.What do you think? Have any war stories or cautionary tales to share? Let me know.

Crossing the AI Hype Chasm

Building is hard, and there are always 100 reasons to give up for the 1 there is to keep going. I've had this rattling around in my brain for a while as a construct that has helped guide my thinking and my approach to interactions of late. Perhaps it will be helpful to you too. And yes I'm dating myself with the George Costanza reference. But the best line in Sitcom history will forever be "George likes his kung pao spicy." Prove me wrong.So we all know the George Costanza type — the constant critic, finder of fault and the one that 'knows better.' Long on opinion, short on action. Rarely is this the person that makes things better, solves a problem or unites a team. George would rant about a coworker’s bad parking or Jerry’s dating life to dodge his own flops, like losing another job. It’s all noise, no fix.&nbsp;<figure id="figure-a2a174ig39monhxtvy" data-full-width=""><img id="a2a174ig39monhxtvy" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2fH8sLWMTDB0O0G7g5Qq76tkqi84G5aG6hAm5us4qxrORXTT1MIvpKx3oO6TlwFt.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="true" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/2fH8sLWMTDB0O0G7g5Qq76tkqi84G5aG6hAm5us4qxrORXTT1MIvpKx3oO6TlwFt.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>Instead, I say channel your inner Ted Lasso. Look at what Coach Lasso did with AFC Richmond - he came into a divided and horribly underperforming team, owned the challenge, and used positivity, vulnerability and encouragement to unite players like Roy and Jamie and ultimately secure a promotion for the team.No team, company, or startup ecosystem is perfect and the grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence. Faced with headwinds, harping on what's wrong certainly highlights what's broken. But in the absence of constructive input or a view on solutions, is not only not helpful, it shuts down trust and stalls progress.&nbsp;Leaders like Satya Nadella at Microsoft prove this works—he turned a stale culture around by encouraging ideas over blame, boosting innovation and tripling the company’s value. Or take Simon Sinek, whose “Start With Why” pushes us to solve problems with purpose, not pettiness.See a problem? Suggest a fix, rally the team, and make it happen. As leaders, we should always want to embody the character and humility that makes Ted Lasso the incredibly endearing and unforgettable character that he is.&nbsp;So be a Ted Lasso.

In a World of George Costanza's, be Ted Lasso.

Great <a data-mce-href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/innovation-isnt-real-estate-why-startup-hubs-waste-money-paul-o-brien-thw1c/" href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/innovation-isnt-real-estate-why-startup-hubs-waste-money-paul-o-brien-thw1c/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">post</a> from my friend Paul O'Brien at Startup Economist about what cities are doing right and where they're missing the mark when it comes to building startup ecosystems.&nbsp;&nbsp;Here's the TL;DR:"Too many cities are still spending millions on “innovation hubs” that look busy, photograph well, and impress visiting delegations, but don’t actually produce startups that raise capital, generate revenue, or create jobs. I've written about this before and I'll keep beating on it till cities do better. The graveyard of empty incubators is proof enough: real estate ≠ innovation."<figure id="figure-04697f88cbmonhqjo8" data-full-width=""><img id="04697f88cbmonhqjo8" src="https://cdn.durable.co/covers/dy5bTKS3r168IAOnWYj7cGTYMnArzxROyc9qBUnIKcfG2Vh6jkB3fk1zVTu3b5OZ.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 rounded-sm md:rounded-md lg:rounded-lg" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="true" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/covers/dy5bTKS3r168IAOnWYj7cGTYMnArzxROyc9qBUnIKcfG2Vh6jkB3fk1zVTu3b5OZ.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>I spent 17 years in the Silicon Valley and the last 11 in flyover country, i.e. Arizona. This is so on-point.&nbsp;Unfettered cheerleading for every founder that registers a domain and unending pitch competitions to win $25K checks not only don't move the needle, they fail to build the culture and discipline that is essential for startup ecosystems to thrive. In many cases, the underlying business models of these 'innovation hubs' is antithetical to the goal of fostering viable startups.What this really articulates to me is a roadmap for cities that aren't VC hubs to build the frameworks to replicate (approximate?) the ecosystem value that VCs provide beyond the check. Create active connective tissue at scale and facilitate access to markets and market leaders in the city/region. Create unfair advantages with the unique players and resources in your region.&nbsp;To take this a step further - it's also essential to find and engage the 'been there, done that' in your city to create real mentorship, constructive support and to dish out the tough love when necessary. VCs do this at scale, and IMHO it's one of the most under recognized &amp; unappreciated elements of why regions like the Silicon Valley continue to attract great founders and produce great startups. Capital is fungible and portable. This kind of connective tissue is not - you have to build it.

Innovation Isn't Real Estate.  Why Startup Hubs Waste Money.

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Insights

Is AI Kiling Jobs?

The Perils of Bad Customer Service

What is a Startup Anyway?

Crossing the AI Hype Chasm

In a World of George Costanza's, be Ted Lasso.

Innovation Isn't Real Estate. Why Startup Hubs Waste Money.